Is The Wisdom of Crowds Prone to Exaggeration? Evidence from Metaculus
The Lowe Down
MAY 9, 2023
Ever since Iowa Electronic Markets outperformed experts and polls in predicting election results from 1988 to 2004, the academic community has been particularly excited about leveraging the wisdom of crowds (Surowiecki, 2005), or how the “many are smarter than the few.” People are expected to enter probability that the answer is “yes.”
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