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Is The Wisdom of Crowds Prone to Exaggeration? Evidence from Metaculus

The Lowe Down

Ever since Iowa Electronic Markets outperformed experts and polls in predicting election results from 1988 to 2004, the academic community has been particularly excited about leveraging the wisdom of crowds (Surowiecki, 2005), or how the “many are smarter than the few.” People are expected to enter probability that the answer is “yes.”

Events 52
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A brief critique of UK emergency arrangements in the light of the Covid-19 crisis

Disaster Planning and Emergency Management

The same shortcomings were present in the 2005 London bombings, as were others (for example, the way in which 'major incident' as declared). The 2004 Civil Contingencies Act has been sidelined throughout the Coronavirus disaster. In the UK emergency planners do not manage the events they plan for.

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Eastern Market DC's 150th anniversary last weekend | And my never realized master plan for the market

Rebuilding Place in Urban Space

In 2005, I served on the advisory committee for the International Public Markets Conference which covered both DC and Baltimore that year, led a tour, etc. I first proposed to the city creating TMDs in 2005/2006. I participated in a workshop on the plaza led by Project for Public Spaces and Scenic America in 2004 ( write up ).

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Community building versus economic development

Rebuilding Place in Urban Space

Personally, I think an arena is probably an acceptable choice, especially as it likely will increase transit ridership to events--the team estimates that the 70% of trips to the current arena will drop to 40%, with the much better transit location of Market East. Most economic development planners don't know the difference.